1. Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky
There shouldn’t be much question on who will taken #1 overall on Thursday. Towns moves freakishly well and coordinated for a 250 pound 7-footer. He has excellent touch in the post, and has the potential to expand his game there. He shot 82% from the charity stripe his freshman year, which should come in handy when Hack-A-Jahlil goes into effect. But he really sets himself apart from Okafor defensively. He has the strength to cover NBA centers, and the mobility to cover the 4. He also averaged 4.4 blocks and 13 rebounds per 40 minutes last year. With Rubio, LaVine, and Wiggins occupying the T-Wolves’s backcourt for a while, Towns should be the man at #1.
2. Lakers: DeAngelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
Up until about 10 hours until the draft time, Okafor seemed like the obvious pick here. But recent reports are saying LA is leaning toward the Ohio State guard. Russell is an extremely entertaining kid to watch. Standing 6’5, he already has elite size for a point guard, and combined with a a smooth shooting stroke and outstanding pick and roll game, his skills should translate well into the NBA. Thanks to his size, he gets 6.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. Further more, he’s extremely unselfish and skilled passer, as you can see below. He shot a solid 41% on 3-pointers last season, and looks to have room to improve there still. Either way, it would be a slight surprise to see LA take him here.
3. Sixers: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Okafor has been pegged to go to LA for months until the morning of the draft, where it seems the Lakers are now preferring Russell over the Duke center. Philadelphia has no need for a center, and I think there’s an 80% chance that if Okafor is there at #3, some team will make a trade to grab him. Okafor has the strength and post game to occupy the center position for a long time. He has a 7’5 wingspan and absolutely gigantic hands which, along with extremely good ball handling skills and a high basketball IQ, will serve him well for a while. Okafor’s big question mark has been his defense. Often looking lackadaisical and out of it on the court, his inconsistency along with his lack of explosiveness could be an issue at some point. But for now, he’s only 19.
4. Knicks: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
For the past week or so, Kristaps Porzingis’s great workout had shot him up to the 4 spot with New York, but a recent report within hours of the draft suggest that if Okafor is gone, New York will roll the dice with Mudiay. There’s been rumors that Phil Jackson is in love with Frank Kaminsky as well, but that seems to be stretch if Mudiay is on the board. Mudiay gives you elite size and athleticism at the point guard position. He gets to the basket with ease. He also is a plus passer, who loves to get others involved. Mudiay will take time to get polished, though. He’s limited as a outside shooter, has pretty bad mechanics, and is turnover prone. Think Russell Westbrook before he became Russell Westbrook.
5. Magic: Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
Kristaps is the most intriguing prospect in this draft. After an impressive workout about a week ago, it seemed as though he was the man for New York at #4. But reports that New York will go with Mudiay suggest that Porzingis would fall right into the hands of Orlando at #5. At 7’2, he brings a unique combination of height, length, mobility, and skill. He’s been getting raves about his smooth, quick release perimeter jump shot. His size also gives him the ability to expand his mid-range game. You’ll often see him hit turnaround jumpers and fadeaways with impressive touch. With that said, he still has strides to go to reach his potential. He’s a average passer, lacks toughness, and is a poor rebounder for his size. Whoever grabs him early on is going to have to be patient. Justise Winslow could also be the pick here if Porzingis is gone by the time the Magic are on the clock.
6. Kings: Mario Herzonja, SG, Croatia
Kings President Vlade Divac seems to suggest that Herzonja is there at #6, he’s the pick. Other possibilities could be Mudiay or Winslow. But Herzonja is absolute stud. A freakishly athletic 6’8 shooting guard, Herzonja is a skilled shooter who runs the court well and finishes above the rim. He has a high release point, which allowed him to connect on 40% of his 3-pointers last year. There are still questions about his defensive consistency, but he definitely has the ability to contribute right away and potentially turn into a star down the road. He’ll definitely be one fun kid to watch.
7. Nuggets: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
It seems like Winslow to Denver has been a surefire thing for months, assuming he’s still on the board. If not, look for the Nuggets to take Herzonja. Measured at 6’6 with a toned 230 pound frame, he’s got the toughness and physique to play either wing position. He’s a tremendous defender, and has the agility to guard multiple positions, which is huge in today’s NBA. Also, he’s got great rebounding instincts for a wing player, grabbing 7 rebounds per 40 minutes as a freshman. His knock is that he’s definitely not a prolific scorer. He’s not effective in isolation or pick-and-roll, and is not good at creating his own shot. Ceiling: Andre Iguodala.
8. Pistons: Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
Pistons would love to have Herzonja fall to them, but many reports say they’ve “locked-in” on Stanley Johnson as their guy if Herzonja’s gone. Johnson is an explosiveness player who can create his own shot and get out in transition with ease. He’s got tremendous talent on the defensive end–good footwork, strong frame, great anticipation skills. He also showed excellent rebounding skills by grabbing 9 boards per 40 minutes. His greatest question mark is whether or not he can really become a consistent scorer. He made improvements over his freshman with his 3-point shot, but still there’s work to be done there. He also was absolutely horrendous finishing at the basket. But with his frame, feel for the game, and the fact that he’s not even 19 years old, he can be stud in due time.
9. Hornets: Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
Reports are that Kaminsky is flying up the draft boards and could even taken as high as #4 (!!!) If he’s still there by pick #9, reportedly Michael Jordan will make him his pick. Kaminsky, an extremely versatile and efficient 7-footer, brings a lot of intangibles to the NBA. His fluidity and mobility will attract teams who want a guy who can space the floor and play multiple positions. Frank was a sharpshooter from the 3-point line over his college career, shooting 42%, which tops all of NCAA history for a 7-footer with 100 or more attempts. He’s got great shooting mechanics along with a great feel for the game, which showed with his incredible 9.9% possession turnover ratio. There are obvious question marks about his defense. He’s going to have to learn how to guard smaller, quicker players on the perimeter; how to stay in front and hold his own. People say he’s the definition of “What you see is what you get” in this draft, and if that’s true, you get a extremely skilled 7-footer who has the discipline and scoring to have nice, successful career.
10. Heat: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Booker is the best shooter coming into this draft. He gives you great size for a shooting guard (6’6, 2016 lbs.) He’s strong and incredibly explosive. He was the most consistent shooter for an almost undefeated Wildcat team. He shot 41% from 3 and 53% from 2-pointers. He has strides to go defensively, but his very young age combined with his high IQ and unselfishness make him a solid top 10 prospect in the draft. Good value for the Heat at #10.
11. Pacers: Myles Turner, C, Texas
There’s 1 or 2 players ever year I absolutely fall in love with, and Myles Turner is that guy this year. If he polishes his game up, he can be an absolute star in this league. He stands 6’11 and 240 pounds with a lengthy 7’4 wingspan, and his best offensive weapon is his smooth, soft touch jumper. He showed the ability to jump out to the perimeter and knock down the 3, as well as use the pick-the-roll to pop out for the mid-range. On the defensive side of the ball, Turner is an elite defensive rebounder (9.4 per 40 min.) and shot blocker (4.7 per 40 min.) who ranks near the top of the draft field. There have been some knocks on his lack of explosiveness and over-aggressiveness, but for the most part, he does a superb job at timing blocks and rebounds. As his body fills out and his maturity grows, I think we can expect Turner to be an above average starting center in this league.
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12. Jazz: Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Lyles is the definition of versatile. He’s got a solid frame for a power forward, including a nice 7’3 wingspan. He moves very well in space and has nice body control for a 6’10 player. In his one year at Kentucky, he was never able to put up gawdy numbers, but did score very well when around the rim. His outside shooting is still a big question mark. The potential is there, and 4 years from now, we may look back and say he was a steal at 13.
13. Suns: Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Reports of a recent, lingering stress fracture may have the Kentucky big man taking a free fall. If he falls out out of the top 6, logical places he could be picked could be Miami, Phoenix, or possibly all the way down to Dallas at #21. What Cauley-Stein gives you is one of the most fluid and explosive 7-footers that we’ve seen in recent years. He can be a legit nightmare on the defensive end. He moves so well and can cover multiple positions on the floor. He contests shots both on the perimeter and in the paint, as well as offering elite rim protection. He is also excellent in transition and pick-and-roll and finishes great at the rim. Beyond that, he has been very inconsistent on the offensive side of the ball. He is horrendous with his back to the basket, misses relatively easy shots in the paint, and lacks countermoves. His ceiling is something like Tyson Chandler, though that might be even pushing it.
14. Thunder: Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Payne brings a great blend of passing and scoring to the table. He’s got decent size (6’2) but a very long wingspan for a point guard (6’7). He’s been an above average outside shooter, but has bad mechanics with a very low release point. He can drive the lane, take you off the dribble, come off screens, or knock it down from deep. On defense, his long arms make GM’s salivate, and his great anticipation skills show with his high steal rate. He’ll need to get stronger and be more physical, but he has chance to be solid contributor for a team like the Thunder.
15. Hawks: Kelly Oubre, SG, Kansas
Oubre was projected as a top 10 pick a few months ago, but some disappointing workouts have pushed him out of the top 10, and should be picked somewhere between 13-17. For the most part, Oubre was very inconsistent in his one year at Kansas. He’s a streaky shooter, and is very good guarding the wing. The struggle for him will be bringing a consistent intensity night in and night out. His jump shot and mechanics will also need quite a bit of work. He’s your classic boom-or-bust prospect.
16. Celtics: Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
Dekker’s got the perfect physical tools for an NBA wing, boasting 6’9 length and a 229 pound frame. He doesn’t do many spectacular things, but moves very well in space, and is great working around the rim. He’s had flashes of being a outside shooter, but for the most part has been inconsistent at best. He’s always around the ball, either throwing down the lob or crashing the boards. He’s seems to be the ideal NBA role player.
17. Bucks: Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
Portis has been projected as high as 11, and as low as 20. The Bucks reportedly want to trade up. If he’s gone, the Bucks will look to take someone like Trey Lyles, Kevon Looney, or possibly Kelly Oubre is he falls this far. Back to Portis, a 6’11 mobile forward with a never-ending motor. He’ll immediately contribute on a team like the Bucks, with his constant crashing of the boards, and his ability to space the floor and knock down the 20 foot jumper. He shot 42% on all jump shots over the past year, which is definitely a plus for his size. He also showed he can guard either the interior or the perimeter. One of the knocks on Portis is lack of explosiveness, which shows on his ability to defend the rim and score near the rim with authority. As he continues to grow and mature, he’ll have to improve his defensive rebounding and rim protection. Bucks said they wanted a stretch 4 who can score in the post and space the floor. The Arkansas forward fits that bill. Portis may not have the highest ceiling of some of the other player in the draft, but the expectation is that he becomes a very high contributing, high impact role player in time.
18. Rockets: Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Physically, Jones has average NBA point guard size, measured at 6’1 and 190 pounds. He does not look athletically imposing, but makes up for it with great intelligence and pose. He works best when he’s got the ball in transition, either finding big men running up the floor or popping it out to the wing. He’s not the greatest perimeter shooter, but will knock it down here and there. There’s work to be done on the defensive side of the ball with his on-ball guarding. As he matures, he’ll be a very serviceable guard off the bench. Think Tyler Ennis.
19. Wizards: Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
As a Wisconsin native, I followed the freak prospect that is Kevon Looney for years. He’s stands 6’9 with a ginormous 7’4 wingspan. He’s a raw as it gets; not exceptionally explosive, not a refined shooter, and not too polished on the post. The best thing he’ll give you right away is a relentless motor on the glass, shown by averaging over 9 rebounds a game for UCLA. He’s got unique sense of where the ball will be once it’s shot. He’s also shown the potential to knock down the perimeter shot, shooting 42% from beyond the arc. Only 19 and with massive potential, Looney will be taken by a team willing to put in the time and patience to help him become the player he’s capable of being.
20. Raptors: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson is your classic role player, doing a lot of different things on the court but not doing any one of those things specifically well. He’s got good measurements for a wing, at 6’7 and 7’0 wingspan. He was prolific defender at Arizona and will immediately bring that to whatever team takes him. He has strides to go as far as a consistent scorer, but can definitely improve in that aspect. Think Luc Richard Mbah A Moute.
21. Mavs: Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
Grant could easily be taken somewhere in the 15-20 range. Delon Wright could be an option here as well. Grant’s got fantastic size (6’5) for a point guard, has a quick first step, and is a great playmaker. He makes the right decisions, puts the ball where it needs to be, and is extremely unselfish. He’s shown the ability to be an above-average scorer, but has struggled at times to be consistent. One of his biggest question marks is whether he can take contact in the paint, given his smaller frame and limits vertically. Dallas has a need for a combo guard and Grant would be a steal for them if available at 21.
22. Bulls: Delon Wright, PG, Utah
The Bulls would satisfied with Wright is he’s on the board at 22. He’s one the oldest prospects in the draft, and make a nice career for himself at Utah. He’s very tall for his position, and uses his length to be a tremendous passer and great defender. He has great anticipation skills and grabs a lot of steals. There are many doubts about his scoring consistency, as he shot just 30% from downtown the last few seasons. He’ll have to get stronger if he wants to be serviceable reserve at the next level.
23. Trail Blazers: R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
I’m really not that high on R.J. Hunter as some others are. I’ve seen mock drafts that have him in the top 15, which seems ludicrous. He does have great range and mechanics, though he only shot 30% from beyond the arc last season. He also provides great wingspan (6’9) from the 2-guard, and can be an above average defender at the next level. His ceiling is probably something like Marco Belinelli.
24. Cavs: Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Vaughn has a good frame for a shooting guard and tremendous scoring instincts. Averaging 22 points per 40 minutes, Vaughn can score in a variety of ways, but doesn’t do too much more for you. He’s not a great defender, and doesn’t provide really any explosiveness. None the less, he’s a 18 year old with scoring potential that’s worth a late round flyer on. Ceiling: O.J. Mayo. Justin Anderson could also be an option here as well.
25. Grizzlies: Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia
Anderson is a very, very, very good defender with long arms and a strong, developed upper body. He can guard multiple positions and moves very well as an on-ball defender. On top of that, he continually improved his outside shot over 3 years at Virginia, and shot a cool 45% from beyond the arc this past season. If he can turn out to be a replacement for a player like Tony Allen, the Grizzlies should be extremely satisfied.
26. Spurs: Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Whoever grabs Harrell will get a high motor, high energy forward who can guard multiple positions. He’s undersized (6’8) but does have a long wingspan (7’3). Each year he’s shown improvement on the offensive side of the ball, but still has plenty of polishing up to do. He plays like Kenneth Faried, other than the fact that Faried is much more skilled rebounder than Harrell. He won’t be a huge difference maker, but whatever fan base grabs him will love his relentless energy.
27. Lakers: Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
At this point, if the Lakers snag Wood, they’re taking him for the high potential (high risk) that he can bring in the long run. He has the prototypical size to be an NBA power forward (6’11, 7’3 wingspan) but his frame definitely has some developing to do. Offensively, Wood has a skill set that can have success both on the perimeter and in the post. He made 24 three pointers this past season and uses his length to move up and down the floor with ease. He’s going to have to get stronger and polish up his offense, but at the point in the draft, he has a lot of potential upside.
28. Celtics: Jarrell Martin, PF, LSU
Martin has good size for a power forward, and the explosiveness and agility to work around the rim and have success in the NBA. He will predominantly work solely down low, and does not have a consistent jump shot. He’s not a great defender, rebounder, and has bad mechanics, which all can be worked on. But at this point, any player is a project.
29. Nets: Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse
This a kid who was expected to return for this sophomore year, and probably should have, but didn’t. He was a top 20 recruit who has had questions about his intensity and focus. He has good length and wingspan but his frame will have to fill out if he wants to be an NBA power forward. He has a pretty shooting stroke and a potential to become a prolific scorer. Defensively, he’s been very inconsistent at best. He’s from the Bronx, and seems to be a fit in Brooklyn.
30. Warriors: Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford
The Warriors are very low on obvious needs. They could use a role player to come off the bench to replace someone like Leandro Barbosa. Anthony Brown fits that bill. He’s got great size for a wing (6’7) and can shoot the ball extremely well from a variety of places. Brown’s also a very good on-ball defender. He’s unselfish and can find place on a stacked roster like Golden State’s. Good value at 30.
NOLAN BRATT 